COMMERCIAL / INDUSTRY
Airbus predicts the world’s passenger and freighter aircraft fleet is set to more than double from today’s nearly 23,000 to almost 48,000 by 2038 with traffic growing at 4.3% annually, also resulting in a need for 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians.
Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast 2019-2038 predicts that by 2038, there will be a fleet of 47,680 aircraft, comprising 39,210 new aircraft and 8,470 remaining from today.
Of the 39,210 new passenger and freighter aircraft, 29,720 will be small (A320 Family-sized) aircraft, 5,370 will be medium (A321s and A330s)) and 4,120 will be large (A350s), Airbus predicts, with 25,000 for growth and 14,210 are to replace older models with newer ones offering superior efficiency.
Airbus said: “Resilient to economic shocks, air traffic has more than doubled since 2000. It is increasingly playing a key role in connecting large population centres, particularly in emerging markets where the propensity to travel is amongst the world’s highest as cost or geography make alternatives impossible.
“Today, about a quarter of the world’s urban population is responsible for more than a quarter of global GDP, and given both are key growth drivers, Aviation Mega Cities (AMCs) will continue to power the global aviation network.”
Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Airbus International, commented: “The 4% annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short term economic shocks and geo-political disturbances. Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect.”